The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) determines when the United States is in a recession. However, the group usually does not make the determination until 6 to 18 months after we enter a recession. Generally, economists define a recession as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction. Using that definition, a recession would not become an official recession until about 6 months into it.
The president of the NBER, Martin Feldstein, has said that we are in a recession, but that is not an official NBER declaration.
Also, three out of four Americans now think that the United States economy is in a recession, according to a CNN poll.
I worry that a recession will worsen the poverty problem in the United States. After having observed the international instability caused by the recent credit crisis, I worry that a United States economic recession would worsen poverty internationally.
A recession will also greatly hinder the ability of anti-poverty organization to find investments, loans and other funding.
At the risk of sounding cliché, I recommend we hope for the best but prepare for the worst.
Whatever happens, I hope we all learn that we need to find a more stable economic system. The boom/bust cycle makes people too complacent during booms, and too weak and fearful to change anything during busts. The very existence of poverty demonstrates a massive flaw in our economic system. We need to create a more stable and meritocratic economy without poverty and preferably without so much speculation and usury.
I encourage everyone interested in United States economics to research the Federal Reserve. As Henry Ford said, “It is well that the people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.”
If you do research the Federal Reserve, I recommend you try to figure out its actual interests, and do not assume it has the interests of the typical citizen in mind. Also, research the effects of inflationary monetary policies. Remember, people in power predictably tend to do what benefits themselves regardless of whether it hurts or helps people like you and I.